Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
