Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
